(if you want to skip the numbers babble, scroll down 'til you see the big bold "predictions!"
I've decided to try my hand at this prediction thing, using statistics, of course. I compared the lists from 2015 and 2010 to see which names had climbed the most--any name can have a fluke jump from one year to the next, but to continue to rise means it might have some staying power (or at least become a name that pinpoints a generation).
I started by finding the names that had the biggest ranking jumps, and no shocker--it was the all ones that surprised me in previous years. Can these names stand the test of time? It might still be too early to tell.
The observant reader may note that almost all are pop-culture inspired choices. :p
- Daleyza, unranked --> #236
- Cataleya, unranked --> #434
- Zendaya, unranked --> #800
- Khaleesi, unranked --> #814
- Dalary, unranked --> #911
- Kataleya, unranked --> #1149
- Cattleya, unranked --> #1621
- Daleysa, unranked --> #1935
- Merida, unranked --> #1986
- Adalind, unranked --> #2126
- Daenerys, unranked --> #2262
- Aaradhya, unranked --> #2287
- Yazaira, unranked --> #2287
- Jesiah, unranked --> #2568
- Vanellope, unranked --> #2596
- Arrow, unranked --> #2865
- Oaklynn, unranked --> #2986
- Oaklyn, unranked --> #3045
- Everlie, unranked --> #3076
- Janney, unranked --> #3152
- Jonael, unranked --> #918
- Viaan, unranked --> #1213
- Jionni, unranked --> #1218
- Jaycion, unranked --> #1792
- Jaiceon, unranked --> #1941
- Eivin, unranked --> #2074
- Nivaan, unranked --> #2224
- Finnick, unranked --> #2311
- True, unranked --> #2311
- Avyaan, unranked --> #2338
- Itzae, unranked --> #2417
- Jaceyon, unranked --> #2444
- Kroy, unranked --> #2444
- Jaceion, unranked --> #2471
- Jayceion, unranked --> #2588
- Gotham, unranked --> #2621
- Jacion, unranked --> #2621
- Rhydian, unranked --> #2621
- Johnluke, unranked --> #2752
- Aayansh, unranked --> #2793
So, yeah. While these did make big jumps, none of them are particularly popular. So how about the names that made the biggest rises since 2010 to end up in the Top 200?
- Everly, +1293 (#1431 --> #138)
- Raelynn, +450 (#627 --> #177)
- Aria, +324 (#353 --> #29)
- Adalynn, +323 (#446 --> #123)
- Mila, +311 (#364 --> #53)
- Luna, +232 (#342 --> #110)
- Athena, +205 (#362 --> #157)
- Emilia, +203 (#348 --> #145)
- Hazel, +200 (#263 --> #63)
- Kinsley, +194 (#307 --> #113)
- Paisley, +192 (#237 --> #45)
- Arabella, +192 (#386 --> #194)
- Cora, +188 (#276 --> #88)
- Adeline, +188 (#323 --> #135)
- Adelyn, +187 (#380 --> #193)
- Willow, +178 (#289 --> #111)
- Emery, +178 (#312 --> #134)
- Rose, +171 (#337 --> #166)
- Ivy, +170 (#299 --> #129)
- Penelope, +166 (#200 --> #34)
- Quinn, +157 (#254 --> #97)
- Isla, +156 (#297 --> #141)
- Ximena, +147 (#272 --> #125)
- Aubree, +145 (#223 --> #78)
- Skylar, +139 (#181 --> #42)
- Brantley, +615 (#736 --> #121)
- Iker, +456 (#646 --> #190)
- Jase, +422 (#604 --> #182)
- Maverick, +321 (#505 --> #184)
- Karter, +261 (#444 --> #183)
- Matteo, +238 (#429 --> #191)
- King, +236 (#399 --> #163)
- August, +232 (#427 --> #195)
- Abel, +168 (#293 --> #125)
- Jayce, +166 (#298 --> #132)
- Theodore, +162 (#261 --> #99)
- Declan, +162 (#274 --> #112)
- Ryker, +161 (#310 --> #149)
- Everett, +152 (#287 --> #135)
- Ezra, +150 (#242 --> #92)
- Zayden, +144 (#337 --> #193)
- Greyson, +138 (#249 --> #111)
- Mateo, +137 (#222 --> #85)
- Emmett, +134 (#273 --> #139)
- Jameson, +133 (#277 --> #144)
- Lincoln, +131 (#197 --> #66)
- Bennett, +126 (#279 --> #153)
- Harrison, +114 (#233 --> #119)
- Luca, +113 (#270 --> #157)
- Graham, +106 (#282 --> #176)
I find it interesting how the girls' jumps are more extreme, and that also more girls' names made it into the Top 100, not just the Top 200 (not to mention the 3 different iterations of Adeline).
Another indication of how girls' names tend to be more trend-driven, I suppose?
Another indication of how girls' names tend to be more trend-driven, I suppose?
It's actually pretty easy for lower-ranking names to gain quite a bit in a short time, mostly because all the names further down the list tend to be pretty close in usage numbers, while the higher up you get, the more names break away from the pack. So lets see which names gained the most in actual usage (by % of babies born, 2015 Top 200 only):
- Harper, +0.40%
- Charlotte, +0.31%
- Aria, +0.28%
- Scarlett, +0.23%
- Amelia, +0.23%
- Penelope, +0.23%
- Mia, +0.22%
- Mila, +0.20%
- Paisley, +0.19%
- Skylar, +0.18%
- Evelyn, +0.18%
- Sofia, +0.18%
- Nora, +0.18%
- Emma, +0.17%
- Hazel, +0.16%
- Olivia, +0.14%
- Avery, +0.14%
- Eleanor, +0.13%
- Violet, +0.12%
- Aubree, +0.12%
- Liam, +0.37%
- Oliver, +0.35%
- Grayson, +0.22%
- Jaxon, +0.21%
- Lincoln, +0.2%
- Henry, +0.19%
- Mateo, +0.17%
- Noah, +0.16%
- Sebastian, +0.16%
- Hudson, +0.16%
- Brantley, +0.15%
- Ezra, +0.14%
- Jaxson, +0.14%
- Theodore, +0.14%
- Carter, +0.13%
- Jace, +0.13%
- Leo, +0.13%
- Easton, +0.12%
- Levi, +0.12%
- Wyatt, +0.12%
If you're thinking that a lot of these seem like rehashed lists from the past few years' analyses, you're pretty much right. So I'm going to try something new: to not only look at the most rising names (by %), but also the names around them, and try to predict how the rankings will change.
Here the result, my predictions for 2016:
The new Top 20!
Here the result, my predictions for 2016:
The new Top 20!
1.
|
Emma, no change
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Noah, no change
|
2.
|
Olivia, no change
|
Liam, no change
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3.
|
Sophia, no change
|
Mason, no change
|
4.
|
Ava, no change
|
William, +1
|
5.
|
Mia, +1
|
James, +2
|
6.
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Isabella, -1
|
Jacob, -2
|
7.
|
Charlotte, +2
|
Ethan, -1
|
8.
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Abigail, -1
|
Alexander, no change
|
9.
|
Harper, +1
|
Benjamin, +1
|
10.
|
Emily, -2
|
Michael, -1
|
11.
|
Amelia, +1
|
Elijah, no change
|
12.
|
Sofia, +2
|
Aiden, +1
|
13.
|
Evelyn, +2
|
Oliver, +6
|
14.
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Avery, +2
|
Daniel, -2
|
15.
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Elizabeth, -2
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Logan, -1
|
16.
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Madison, -5
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Lucas, no change
|
17.
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Scarlett, +5
|
Matthew, -2
|
18.
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Victoria, +2
|
Jackson, -1
|
19.
|
Aubrey, +2
|
Carter, +5
|
20.
|
Grace, -1
|
David, -2
|
Here are the names I think will move into and out of the Top 100:
In:
|
Out:
|
Elena
|
Alexis
|
Eliana
|
Alyssa
|
Hadley
|
Ashley
|
Kinsley
|
Brianna
|
Luna
|
Gianna
|
Willow
|
Khloe
|
Roman
|
Nathaniel
|
And perhaps even more fun, the Top 1000:
In:
|
Out:
|
Aadhya
|
Abril
|
Addalyn
|
Alissa
|
Aliah
|
Aliya
|
Amora
|
America
|
Anais
|
Asia
|
Anniston
|
Breanna
|
Antonella
|
Dana
|
Antonia
|
Denise
|
Ari
|
Emmalee
|
Aubri
|
Halle
|
August
|
Heather
|
Ayva
|
Ireland
|
Belle
|
Jaida
|
Chandler
|
Janiya
|
Charleston
|
Jasmin
|
Dani
|
Jayden
|
Ellery
|
Jaylin
|
Ellianna
|
Jenny
|
Etta
|
Jocelynn
|
Everlee
|
Kaitlynn
|
Harleigh
|
Kayden
|
Jana
|
Kiana
|
Kaidence
|
Kiley
|
Kaylani
|
Kimora
|
Londynn
|
Libby
|
Mavis
|
Luz
|
Mercy
|
Mariyah
|
Mylah
|
Mollie
|
Paisleigh
|
Moriah
|
Poppy
|
Natalee
|
Ramona
|
Nataly
|
Princess
|
|
Saniyah
|
|
Sharon
|
|
Sidney
|
|
Tabitha
|
|
Wendy
|
|
Yasmin
|
|
Abner
|
Antoine
|
Alaric
|
Aydan
|
Alistair
|
Braiden
|
Braylin
|
Brenden
|
Brysen
|
Camren
|
Danilo
|
Chace
|
Decker
|
Cristopher
|
Foster
|
Davin
|
Fox
|
Deshawn
|
Gatlin
|
Ean
|
Harlem
|
Frankie
|
Imran
|
Freddy
|
Ira
|
Gilbert
|
Jericho
|
Jadon
|
Keanu
|
Jamarion
|
Khalid
|
Jaydon
|
Koda
|
Jayvion
|
Kooper
|
Jessie
|
Mccoy
|
Jordyn
|
Merrick
|
Jovani
|
Rayyan
|
Kaeden
|
Simeon
|
Kamron
|
Tadeo
|
Malaki
|
Taj
|
Marquis
|
Wesson
|
Osvaldo
|
Westley
|
Rashad
|
Yaakov
|
Rolando
|
Zamir
|
Todd
|
Triston
|
|
Tyree
|
|
Ulises
|
Okay! Only a couple weeks or so to go, and we'll see how good (or terribly!) I did. :D