What Does 'Change' Mean? (2012) Part III

Change in rankings is one way to gauge change in popularity, and it definitely has its advantages--easy to quantify & easy to understand. However, I find a change in percentage analysis a bit more interesting. It shows just how much more popular a name has gotten.

The biggest gains in usage in 2012 were:

Boys:

1. Liam (0.66% --> 0.83%)
2. Gael (0.034% --> 0.13%)
3. Brantley (0.079% --> 0.13%)
4. Jaxon (0.23% --> 0.31%)
5. Ethan (0.82% --> 0.87%)
6. Jace (0.18% --> 0.23%)
7. Eli (0.355% --> 0.40%)
8. Damian (0.043% --> 0.19%)
9. Henry (0.36% --> 0.40%)
10. Hudson (0.17% --> 0.21%)

Girls:

1. Harper (0.35% --> 0.37%)
2. Emma (0.97% --> 1.08%)
3. Paisley (0.08% --> 0.15%)
4. Aria (0.1% --> 0.17%)
5. Skylar (0.11% --> 0.17%)
6. Aubree (0.15% --> 0.21%)
7. Zoey (0.33% --> 0.39%)
8. Charlotte (0.33% --> 0.39%)
9. Avery (0.38% --> 0.43%)
10. Amelia (0.33% --> 0.37%)

The reason I prefer percentage-change analysis to rankings is that rankings sometimes aren't all that helpful. So Ethan went from #8 to #4 (which is pretty impressive a jump in the top 10, actually)--does that really mean it's that much more common this year than last? Well, no, not really. In 2011 about 8 in 1000 boys were named Ethan, and in 2012 that increased to about 9 in 1000. The top names are actually all very close to each other in usage. 

Which brings me to another fun exercise--relative frequency. While your chances of meeting a baby Ethan haven't really changed all that much, you may have noticed in the lists above that Gael's percentage nearly quadrupled. That's right, you're almost 4x more likely to meet a baby Gael than you were last year.

The biggest risers in relative frequency (only includes names in the Top 1500 for 2012):

Boys:

1. Damoni (5.5x)
2. Jayceon (4.3x)
3. Gael (4x)
4. Jionni (3.9x)
5. Trayvon (3.24x)
6. Brantlee (2.9x)
7. Major (2.83x)
8. Zayn (2.73x)
9. Brantley (2.6x)
10. Jase (2.5x)
11. Brently (2.33x)
12. Gionni (2.32x)
13. Damani (2.3x)
14. Messiah (2.1x)
15. Iker (2x)
16. King (1.97x)
17. Foster (1.96x)
18. Dakari (1.8x)
19. Neymar (1.78x)
20. Kyrie (1.77x)

Girls:

1. Cataleya (22.8x) [no, that is NOT a typo!]
2. Kataleya (19.3x)
3. Adley (5.8x)
4. Litzy (3.34x)
5. Sutton (3.3x)
6. Kenia (2.78x)
7. Batsheva (2.4x)
8. Blakely (2x)
9. Arya (1.96x)
10. Malaysia (1.95x)
11. Monroe (1.9x)
12. Itzayana (1.84x)
13. Zooey (1.8x)
14. Colette (1.8x)
15. Paisley (1.79x)
16. Rosie (1.7x)
17. Kenya (1.7x)
18. Ivory (1.65x)
19. Alyanna (1.65x)
20. Braylee (1.64x)

Gotta say, I have no idea where Damani & Damoni came from. Jionni/Gionni is a bit of a surprise, but a logical successor to Giovanni & its many forms. Brantley & Brentley continue their rise from last year. Could they be Top 100 material in a couple years?

I don't think anyone saw Cataleya coming. Adley, Sutton, Blakely, & Monroe are no surprise, following easily in the modern surnames-for-girls trend. Rosie & Colette are nice surprises.