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Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Unisex Names--SSA (2016)

Love 'em or hate 'em, you can't deny that unisex (or "unisex") names are a big part of baby-naming in the US right now. It's been a couple years since I analyzed the unisex names in the SSA data, and I'm interested to see what names have shifted.

To start off with, the most popular names given to both genders in 2016, with their gender ratios.
(Only the most common spelling for each gender is given, but all spellings [as best as I could figure] were counted.)
  1. Jackson / Jaxyn, ≈242 boys per girl
  2. Aiden / Ayden, ≈120 boys per girl
  3. Noah / Noa, ≈36 boys per girl
  4. Mason, ≈44 boys per girl
  5. Riley, ≈6 girls per boy
  6. Kayden, ≈25 boys per girl
  7. Jayden, ≈16 boys per girl
  8. Grayson / Gracyn, ≈19 boys per girl
  9. James, ≈185 boys per girl
  10. Michael, ≈316 boys per girl
  11. Elijah / Alijah, ≈160 boys per girl
  12. Carter, ≈11 boys per girl
  13. Avery, ≈5 girls per boy
  14. Cameron / Kamryn, ≈4 boys per girl
  15. Logan, ≈12 boys per girl
  16. Dylan, ≈11 boys per girl
  17. Evelyn, ≈1473 girls per boy
  18. Aubrey, ≈76 girls per boy
  19. Madison, ≈192 girls per boy
  20. Harper, ≈37 girls per boy
Now, just because these names are used on both genders, doesn't mean they're exactly common for both genders!
Here are the most unisex names in the Top 2000 for both genders, given to about an equal % of boys and girls:
  1. Layton / Leighton
  2. Khari / Kari
  3. Hollis
  4. Briar
  5. Payson
  6. Nikita
  7. Storm
  8. Ridley
  9. Harlan / Harlyn
  10. Armani
  11. Justice
  12. Scotty / Scottie
  13. Sonny / Sunny
  14. Lonnie / Lani
  15. Indiana
  16. Murphy
  17. Britton
  18. Finley
  19. Frankie
  20. Francis / Frances
Many of those are still pretty darned uncommon (Scotty / Scottie, for instance, was given to 63 boys and 72 girls). So, here are the most unisex names in both the girls' and boys' Top 1000:
  1. Layton / Leighton
  2. Khari / Kari
  3. Briar
  4. Harlan / Harlyn
  5. Armani
  6. Justice
  7. Sonny / Sunny
  8. Finley
  9. Frankie
  10. Francis / Frances
  11. Rhys / Reese
  12. Rene / Renee
  13. Lennon
  14. Rory
  15. Rylan
  16. Lennox
  17. Dakota
  18. Royal
  19. Oakley
  20. Corey / Kori
And just to completely overload everyone with lists, here are all the unisex names in both the boys' and girls' Top 1000, from most --> least masculine:
(if you wish to browse the entire list of unisex names, you can find it here)
  • Mason, ≈44 boys per girl
  • Noah / Noa, ≈36 boys per girl
  • Kayden, ≈25 boys per girl
  • Hunter, ≈23 boys per girl
  • Tyler, ≈20 boys per girl
  • Grayson / Gracyn, ≈19 boys per girl
  • Ezra, ≈18 boys per girl
  • Bentley, ≈17 boys per girl
  • Jayden, ≈16 boys per girl
  • Alex, ≈13 boys per girl
  • Austin / Austyn, ≈12 boys per girl
  • Adrian / Adrienne, ≈12 boys per girl
  • Logan, ≈12 boys per girl
  • Carter, ≈11 boys per girl
  • Camden, ≈11 boys per girl
  • Dylan, ≈11 boys per girl
  • August, ≈9 boys per girl
  • Kai, ≈9 boys per girl
  • Ashton, ≈8 boys per girl
  • Cody / Kodi, ≈8 boys per girl
  • Kyrie, ≈7 boys per girl
  • Lane / Laine, ≈6 boys per girl
  • Carson / Karsyn, ≈6 boys per girl
  • Zion, ≈6 boys per girl
  • Aaron / Erin, ≈6 boys per girl
  • Spencer, ≈6 boys per girl
  • Ryan, ≈5 boys per girl
  • Angel, ≈5 boys per girl
  • Micah, ≈5 boys per girl
  • Devin / Devyn, ≈5 boys per girl
  • Jesse / Jessie, ≈4 boys per girl
  • Cameron / Kamryn, ≈4 boys per girl
  • Elliot, ≈4 boys per girl
  • Drew, ≈3 boys per girl
  • Sawyer, ≈3 boys per girl
  • Parker, ≈3 boys per girl
  • Ellis, ≈3 boys per girl
  • Blake, ≈3 boys per girl
  • Quincy, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Chandler, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Colby / Colbie, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Dallas, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Danny / Dani, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Remington, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Andy / Andi, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Milan, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Daylen / Dailyn, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Kamari, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Jordan / Jordyn, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Phoenix, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Joey, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Baylor, ≈2 boys per girl
  • River, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Amari, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Rowan, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Hayden, ≈2 boys per girl
  • Corey / Kori, about equal
  • Royal, about equal
  • Lennox, about equal
  • Rylan, about equal
  • Rory, about equal
  • Sonny / Sunny, about equal
  • Justice, about equal
  • Harlan / Harlyn, about equal
  • Layton / Leighton, about equal
  • Khari / Kari, about equal
  • Briar, about equal
  • Armani, about equal
  • Finley, about equal
  • Frankie, about equal
  • Francis / Frances, about equal
  • Rhys / Reese, about equal
  • Rene / Renee, about equal
  • Lennon, about equal
  • Dakota, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Oakley, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Sutton, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Remy / Remi, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Landry, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Shiloh, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Tatum, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Taylen / Taelyn, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Shea, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Azariah, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Casey, ≈2 girls per boy
  • Sage, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Charlie, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Emerson, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Robin / Robyn, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Alexis, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Jamie, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Ren / Wren, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Eden, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Reign, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Quinn, ≈3 girls per boy
  • Peyton, ≈4 girls per boy
  • Lyric, ≈5 girls per boy
  • Avery, ≈5 girls per boy
  • Taylor, ≈5 girls per boy
  • Skyler / Skylar, ≈5 girls per boy
  • Morgan, ≈6 girls per boy
  • Emery, ≈6 girls per boy
  • Ariel, ≈6 girls per boy
  • Teagan, ≈6 girls per boy
  • Riley, ≈6 girls per boy
  • Kendall, ≈7 girls per boy
  • Marley, ≈11 girls per boy
  • Cadence, ≈11 girls per boy
  • London, ≈11 girls per boy
  • Sidney / Sydney, ≈12 girls per boy
  • Nova, ≈13 girls per boy
  • Reagan, ≈17 girls per boy
  • Harper, ≈37 girls per boy

Now, with all these 'unisex' names you might be wondering 'holy crap, are there no gender-specific names left??' Of course! Here are the most common names given to at most 4 babies of the opposite gender (because the SSA doesn't publish the names given to fewer than 5 babies) :)

Liam
Sophia
William
Olivia
Jacob
Emma
Lucas
Adeline
Benjamin
Ava
Alexander
Isabella
Ethan
Mia
Matthew
Amelia
Oliver
Charlotte
Daniel
Emily
David
Zoey
Joseph
Abigail
Isaac
Madelyn
Samuel
Aria
Sebastian
Layla
Caleb
Chloe
John
Ariana
Henry
Elizabeth
Luke
Aaliyah
Anthony
Lily
(And again, if you want the whole list of "gender-specific" names, you can look here.)


Interestingly, more boys have "unisex" names than girls--49% of boys vs. 24% of girls. This is likely because parents are more likely to consider popular/traditional boys' names for their daughters than popular/traditional girls' names for their sons. For the most part, once a name gets common for girls, parents of boys drop it. :/
That's not to say that tons of parents are choosing masculine names for their daughters--only about 4% of girls last year got names that are currently more common on boys. However, only about 2% of boys got names that are more common on girls (and I'm willing to bet most of those are recently unisex names, like Riley, Avery, & Charlie).

Saturday, May 27, 2017

Prediction Checks (2016)

So, a couple weeks ago I averaged the data change over the last 5 years, and tried to use that to predict rankings this year. I was sometimes successful.
Let's see them.


My prediction
Actual 2016 Top 20
1.
Emma, #1, no change
Emma, #1, no change
2.
Olivia, #2, no change
Olivia, #2, no change
3.
Sophia, #3, no change
Ava, #3, +1
4.
Ava, #4, no change
Sophia, #4, -1
5.
Mia, #5, +1
Isabella, #5, no change
6.
Isabella, #6, -1
Mia, #6, no change
7.
Charlotte, #7, +2
Charlotte, #7, +2
8.
Abigail, #8, -1
Abigail, #8, -1
9.
Harper, #9, +1
Emily, #9, -1
10.
Emily, #10, -2
Harper, #10, no change
11.
Amelia, #11, +1
Amelia, #11, +1
12.
Sofia, #12, +2
Evelyn, #12, +3
13.
Evelyn, #13, +2
Elizabeth, #13, no change
14.
Avery, #14, +2
Sofia, #14, no change
15.
Elizabeth, #15, -2
Madison, #15, -4
16.
Madison, #16, -5
Avery, #16, no change
17.
Scarlett, #17, +5
Ella, #17, +1
18.
Victoria, #18, +2
Scarlett, #18, +4
19.
Aubrey, #19, +2
Grace, #19, no change
20.
Grace, #20, -1
Chloe, #20, -3


My prediction
Actual 2016 Top 20
1.
Noah, #1, no change
Noah, #1, no change
2.
Liam, #2, no change
Liam, #2, no change
3.
Mason, #3, no change
William, #3, +2
4.
William, #4, +1
Mason, #4, -1
5.
James, #5, +2
James, #5, +2
6.
Jacob, #6, -2
Benjamin, #6, +4
7.
Ethan, #7, -1
Jacob, #7, -3
8.
Alexander, #8, no change
Michael, #8, +1
9.
Benjamin, #9, +1
Elijah, #9, +2
10.
Michael, #10, -1
Ethan, #10, -4
11.
Elijah, #11, no change
Alexander, #11, -3
12.
Aiden, #12, +1
Oliver, #12, +7
13.
Oliver, #13, +6
Daniel, #13, -1
14.
Daniel, #14, -2
Lucas, #14, +2
15.
Logan, #15, -1
Matthew, #15, no change
16.
Lucas, #16, no change
Aiden, #16, -3
17.
Matthew, #17, -2
Jackson, #17, no change
18.
Jackson, #18, -1
Logan, #18, -4
19.
Carter, #19, +5
David, #19, -1
20.
David, #20, -2
Joseph, #20, +1

So, not terrible. I thought Chloe & Ella would fall further, and that Aubrey & Victoria would gain instead of falling.
Likewise, for boys, I predicted Carter jumping ahead of Joseph, but alas, it did not.

Now my predictions for the ins & outs of the Top 100:

Predicted:
Actual:
(in)
Elena
Adeline
Eliana
Elena
Hadley
Eliana
Kinsley
Kinsley
Luna
Luna
Willow
Willow


Roman
Bryson

Greyson

Leonardo

Roman
(out)
Alexis
Alexis
Alyssa
Alyssa
Ashley
Ashley
Brianna
Annabelle
Gianna
Isabelle
Khloe
Khloe


Nathaniel
Blake

Kayden

Nathaniel

Ryder

Hey, I didn't do too bad, especially for girls! :D


I made a lot of Top 1000 predictions, and the results were more mixed (and quite a bit too involved to list here concisely): 74 of the 139 names I predicted to shift in or out did, which on its own is about 50%--not bad. However, of the 180 names that actually moved in/out, I only predicted 74 of them (40%).
My methods worked best with names that moved steadily (whether quickly or slowly, as long as the rate stayed consistent), and were surrounded by names that also moved steadily. Names that jumped or tanked suddenly (thanks mostly to pop culture) are ones that messed me up. :)