Sunday, April 30, 2017

2016 is soooo cloooose...

The SSA popularity lists, obviously. ;)
(if you want to skip the numbers babble, scroll down 'til you see the big bold "predictions!"

I've decided to try my hand at this prediction thing, using statistics, of course. I compared the lists from 2015 and 2010 to see which names had climbed the most--any name can have a fluke jump from one year to the next, but to continue to rise means it might have some staying power (or at least become a name that pinpoints a generation).

I started by finding the names that had the biggest ranking jumps, and no shocker--it was the all ones that surprised me in previous years. Can these names stand the test of time? It might still be too early to tell.
The observant reader may note that almost all are pop-culture inspired choices. :p
  1. Daleyza, unranked --> #236
  2. Cataleya, unranked --> #434
  3. Zendaya, unranked --> #800
  4. Khaleesi, unranked --> #814
  5. Dalary, unranked --> #911
  6. Kataleya, unranked --> #1149
  7. Cattleya, unranked --> #1621
  8. Daleysa, unranked --> #1935
  9. Merida, unranked --> #1986
  10. Adalind, unranked --> #2126
  11. Daenerys, unranked --> #2262
  12. Aaradhya, unranked --> #2287
  13. Yazaira, unranked --> #2287
  14. Jesiah, unranked --> #2568
  15. Vanellope, unranked --> #2596
  16. Arrow, unranked --> #2865
  17. Oaklynn, unranked --> #2986
  18. Oaklyn, unranked --> #3045
  19. Everlie, unranked --> #3076
  20. Janney, unranked --> #3152
  1. Jonael, unranked --> #918
  2. Viaan, unranked --> #1213
  3. Jionni, unranked --> #1218
  4. Jaycion, unranked --> #1792
  5. Jaiceon, unranked --> #1941
  6. Eivin, unranked --> #2074
  7. Nivaan, unranked --> #2224
  8. Finnick, unranked --> #2311
  9. True, unranked --> #2311
  10. Avyaan, unranked --> #2338
  11. Itzae, unranked --> #2417
  12. Jaceyon, unranked --> #2444
  13. Kroy, unranked --> #2444
  14. Jaceion, unranked --> #2471
  15. Jayceion, unranked --> #2588
  16. Gotham, unranked --> #2621
  17. Jacion, unranked --> #2621
  18. Rhydian, unranked --> #2621
  19. Johnluke, unranked --> #2752
  20. Aayansh, unranked --> #2793

So, yeah. While these did make big jumps, none of them are particularly popular. So how about the names that made the biggest rises since 2010 to end up in the Top 200?
  1. Everly, +1293 (#1431 --> #138)
  2. Raelynn, +450 (#627 --> #177)
  3. Aria, +324 (#353 --> #29)
  4. Adalynn, +323 (#446 --> #123)
  5. Mila, +311 (#364 --> #53)
  6. Luna, +232 (#342 --> #110)
  7. Athena, +205 (#362 --> #157)
  8. Emilia, +203 (#348 --> #145)
  9. Hazel, +200 (#263 --> #63)
  10. Kinsley, +194 (#307 --> #113)
  11. Paisley, +192 (#237 --> #45)
  12. Arabella, +192 (#386 --> #194)
  13. Cora, +188 (#276 --> #88)
  14. Adeline, +188 (#323 --> #135)
  15. Adelyn, +187 (#380 --> #193)
  16. Willow, +178 (#289 --> #111)
  17. Emery, +178 (#312 --> #134)
  18. Rose, +171 (#337 --> #166)
  19. Ivy, +170 (#299 --> #129)
  20. Penelope, +166 (#200 --> #34)
  21. Quinn, +157 (#254 --> #97)
  22. Isla, +156 (#297 --> #141)
  23. Ximena, +147 (#272 --> #125)
  24. Aubree, +145 (#223 --> #78)
  25. Skylar, +139 (#181 --> #42)
  1. Brantley, +615 (#736 --> #121)
  2. Iker, +456 (#646 --> #190)
  3. Jase, +422 (#604 --> #182)
  4. Maverick, +321 (#505 --> #184)
  5. Karter, +261 (#444 --> #183)
  6. Matteo, +238 (#429 --> #191)
  7. King, +236 (#399 --> #163)
  8. August, +232 (#427 --> #195)
  9. Abel, +168 (#293 --> #125)
  10. Jayce, +166 (#298 --> #132)
  11. Theodore, +162 (#261 --> #99)
  12. Declan, +162 (#274 --> #112)
  13. Ryker, +161 (#310 --> #149)
  14. Everett, +152 (#287 --> #135)
  15. Ezra, +150 (#242 --> #92)
  16. Zayden, +144 (#337 --> #193)
  17. Greyson, +138 (#249 --> #111)
  18. Mateo, +137 (#222 --> #85)
  19. Emmett, +134 (#273 --> #139)
  20. Jameson, +133 (#277 --> #144)
  21. Lincoln, +131 (#197 --> #66)
  22. Bennett, +126 (#279 --> #153)
  23. Harrison, +114 (#233 --> #119)
  24. Luca, +113 (#270 --> #157)
  25. Graham, +106 (#282 --> #176)
I find it interesting how the girls' jumps are more extreme, and that also more girls' names made it into the Top 100, not just the Top 200 (not to mention the 3 different iterations of Adeline).
Another indication of how girls' names tend to be more trend-driven, I suppose?

It's actually pretty easy for lower-ranking names to gain quite a bit in a short time, mostly because all the names further down the list tend to be pretty close in usage numbers, while the higher up you get, the more names break away from the pack. So lets see which names gained the most in actual usage (by % of babies born, 2015 Top 200 only):
  1. Harper, +0.40%
  2. Charlotte, +0.31%
  3. Aria, +0.28%
  4. Scarlett, +0.23%
  5. Amelia, +0.23%
  6. Penelope, +0.23%
  7. Mia, +0.22%
  8. Mila, +0.20%
  9. Paisley, +0.19%
  10. Skylar, +0.18%
  11. Evelyn, +0.18%
  12. Sofia, +0.18%
  13. Nora, +0.18%
  14. Emma, +0.17%
  15. Hazel, +0.16%
  16. Olivia, +0.14%
  17. Avery, +0.14%
  18. Eleanor, +0.13%
  19. Violet, +0.12%
  20. Aubree, +0.12%
  1. Liam, +0.37%
  2. Oliver, +0.35%
  3. Grayson, +0.22%
  4. Jaxon, +0.21%
  5. Lincoln, +0.2%
  6. Henry, +0.19%
  7. Mateo, +0.17%
  8. Noah, +0.16%
  9. Sebastian, +0.16%
  10. Hudson, +0.16%
  11. Brantley, +0.15%
  12. Ezra, +0.14%
  13. Jaxson, +0.14%
  14. Theodore, +0.14%
  15. Carter, +0.13%
  16. Jace, +0.13%
  17. Leo, +0.13%
  18. Easton, +0.12%
  19. Levi, +0.12%
  20. Wyatt, +0.12%
If you're thinking that a lot of these seem like rehashed lists from the past few years' analyses, you're pretty much right. So I'm going to try something new: to not only look at the most rising names (by %), but also the names around them, and try to predict how the rankings will change.

Here the result, my predictions for 2016:

The new Top 20!

1.
Emma, no change
Noah, no change
2.
Olivia, no change
Liam, no change
3.
Sophia, no change
Mason, no change
4.
Ava, no change
William, +1
5.
Mia, +1
James, +2
6.
Isabella, -1
Jacob, -2
7.
Charlotte, +2
Ethan, -1
8.
Abigail, -1
Alexander, no change
9.
Harper, +1
Benjamin, +1
10.
Emily, -2
Michael, -1
11.
Amelia, +1
Elijah, no change
12.
Sofia, +2
Aiden, +1
13.
Evelyn, +2
Oliver, +6
14.
Avery, +2
Daniel, -2
15.
Elizabeth, -2
Logan, -1
16.
Madison, -5
Lucas, no change
17.
Scarlett, +5
Matthew, -2
18.
Victoria, +2
Jackson, -1
19.
Aubrey, +2
Carter, +5
20.
Grace, -1
David, -2


Here are the names I think will move into and out of the Top 100:

In:
Out:
Elena
Alexis
Eliana
Alyssa
Hadley
Ashley
Kinsley
Brianna
Luna
Gianna
Willow
Khloe


Roman
Nathaniel


And perhaps even more fun, the Top 1000:

In:
Out:
Aadhya
Abril
Addalyn
Alissa
Aliah
Aliya
Amora
America
Anais
Asia
Anniston
Breanna
Antonella
Dana
Antonia
Denise
Ari
Emmalee
Aubri
Halle
August
Heather
Ayva
Ireland
Belle
Jaida
Chandler
Janiya
Charleston
Jasmin
Dani
Jayden
Ellery
Jaylin
Ellianna
Jenny
Etta
Jocelynn
Everlee
Kaitlynn
Harleigh
Kayden
Jana
Kiana
Kaidence
Kiley
Kaylani
Kimora
Londynn
Libby
Mavis
Luz
Mercy
Mariyah
Mylah
Mollie
Paisleigh
Moriah
Poppy
Natalee
Ramona
Nataly

Princess

Saniyah

Sharon

Sidney

Tabitha

Wendy

Yasmin


Abner
Antoine
Alaric
Aydan
Alistair
Braiden
Braylin
Brenden
Brysen
Camren
Danilo
Chace
Decker
Cristopher
Foster
Davin
Fox
Deshawn
Gatlin
Ean
Harlem
Frankie
Imran
Freddy
Ira
Gilbert
Jericho
Jadon
Keanu
Jamarion
Khalid
Jaydon
Koda
Jayvion
Kooper
Jessie
Mccoy
Jordyn
Merrick
Jovani
Rayyan
Kaeden
Simeon
Kamron
Tadeo
Malaki
Taj
Marquis
Wesson
Osvaldo
Westley
Rashad
Yaakov
Rolando
Zamir
Todd

Triston

Tyree

Ulises

Okay! Only a couple weeks or so to go, and we'll see how good (or terribly!) I did. :D

1 comment:

  1. I think it's kind of ridiculous that people actually name their children and Vanellope.

    ReplyDelete