2016 is soooo cloooose...

The SSA popularity lists, obviously. ;)
(if you want to skip the numbers babble, scroll down 'til you see the big bold "predictions!"

I've decided to try my hand at this prediction thing, using statistics, of course. I compared the lists from 2015 and 2010 to see which names had climbed the most--any name can have a fluke jump from one year to the next, but to continue to rise means it might have some staying power (or at least become a name that pinpoints a generation).

I started by finding the names that had the biggest ranking jumps, and no shocker--it was the all ones that surprised me in previous years. Can these names stand the test of time? It might still be too early to tell.
The observant reader may note that almost all are pop-culture inspired choices. :p

1. Daleyza, unranked --> #236
2. Cataleya, unranked --> #434
3. Zendaya, unranked --> #800
4. Khaleesi, unranked --> #814
5. Dalary, unranked --> #911
6. Kataleya, unranked --> #1149
7. Cattleya, unranked --> #1621
8. Daleysa, unranked --> #1935
9. Merida, unranked --> #1986
10. Adalind, unranked --> #2126
11. Daenerys, unranked --> #2262
12. Aaradhya, unranked --> #2287
13. Yazaira, unranked --> #2287
14. Jesiah, unranked --> #2568
15. Vanellope, unranked --> #2596
16. Arrow, unranked --> #2865
17. Oaklynn, unranked --> #2986
18. Oaklyn, unranked --> #3045
19. Everlie, unranked --> #3076
20. Janney, unranked --> #3152

1. Jonael, unranked --> #918
2. Viaan, unranked --> #1213
3. Jionni, unranked --> #1218
4. Jaycion, unranked --> #1792
5. Jaiceon, unranked --> #1941
6. Eivin, unranked --> #2074
7. Nivaan, unranked --> #2224
8. Finnick, unranked --> #2311
9. True, unranked --> #2311
10. Avyaan, unranked --> #2338
11. Itzae, unranked --> #2417
12. Jaceyon, unranked --> #2444
13. Kroy, unranked --> #2444
14. Jaceion, unranked --> #2471
15. Jayceion, unranked --> #2588
16. Gotham, unranked --> #2621
17. Jacion, unranked --> #2621
18. Rhydian, unranked --> #2621
19. Johnluke, unranked --> #2752
20. Aayansh, unranked --> #2793

So, yeah. While these did make big jumps, none of them are particularly popular. So how about the names that made the biggest rises since 2010 to end up in the Top 200?

1. Everly, +1293 (#1431 --> #138)
2. Raelynn, +450 (#627 --> #177)
3. Aria, +324 (#353 --> #29)
4. Adalynn, +323 (#446 --> #123)
5. Mila, +311 (#364 --> #53)
6. Luna, +232 (#342 --> #110)
7. Athena, +205 (#362 --> #157)
8. Emilia, +203 (#348 --> #145)
9. Hazel, +200 (#263 --> #63)
10. Kinsley, +194 (#307 --> #113)
11. Paisley, +192 (#237 --> #45)
12. Arabella, +192 (#386 --> #194)
13. Cora, +188 (#276 --> #88)
14. Adeline, +188 (#323 --> #135)
15. Adelyn, +187 (#380 --> #193)
16. Willow, +178 (#289 --> #111)
17. Emery, +178 (#312 --> #134)
18. Rose, +171 (#337 --> #166)
19. Ivy, +170 (#299 --> #129)
20. Penelope, +166 (#200 --> #34)
21. Quinn, +157 (#254 --> #97)
22. Isla, +156 (#297 --> #141)
23. Ximena, +147 (#272 --> #125)
24. Aubree, +145 (#223 --> #78)
25. Skylar, +139 (#181 --> #42)

1. Brantley, +615 (#736 --> #121)
2. Iker, +456 (#646 --> #190)
3. Jase, +422 (#604 --> #182)
4. Maverick, +321 (#505 --> #184)
5. Karter, +261 (#444 --> #183)
6. Matteo, +238 (#429 --> #191)
7. King, +236 (#399 --> #163)
8. August, +232 (#427 --> #195)
9. Abel, +168 (#293 --> #125)
10. Jayce, +166 (#298 --> #132)
11. Theodore, +162 (#261 --> #99)
12. Declan, +162 (#274 --> #112)
13. Ryker, +161 (#310 --> #149)
14. Everett, +152 (#287 --> #135)
15. Ezra, +150 (#242 --> #92)
16. Zayden, +144 (#337 --> #193)
17. Greyson, +138 (#249 --> #111)
18. Mateo, +137 (#222 --> #85)
19. Emmett, +134 (#273 --> #139)
20. Jameson, +133 (#277 --> #144)
21. Lincoln, +131 (#197 --> #66)
22. Bennett, +126 (#279 --> #153)
23. Harrison, +114 (#233 --> #119)
24. Luca, +113 (#270 --> #157)
25. Graham, +106 (#282 --> #176)

I find it interesting how the girls' jumps are more extreme, and that also more girls' names made it into the Top 100, not just the Top 200 (not to mention the 3 different iterations of Adeline).
Another indication of how girls' names tend to be more trend-driven, I suppose?

It's actually pretty easy for lower-ranking names to gain quite a bit in a short time, mostly because all the names further down the list tend to be pretty close in usage numbers, while the higher up you get, the more names break away from the pack. So lets see which names gained the most in actual usage (by % of babies born, 2015 Top 200 only):

1. Harper, +0.40%
2. Charlotte, +0.31%
3. Aria, +0.28%
4. Scarlett, +0.23%
5. Amelia, +0.23%
6. Penelope, +0.23%
7. Mia, +0.22%
8. Mila, +0.20%
9. Paisley, +0.19%
10. Skylar, +0.18%
11. Evelyn, +0.18%
12. Sofia, +0.18%
13. Nora, +0.18%
14. Emma, +0.17%
15. Hazel, +0.16%
16. Olivia, +0.14%
17. Avery, +0.14%
18. Eleanor, +0.13%
19. Violet, +0.12%
20. Aubree, +0.12%

1. Liam, +0.37%
2. Oliver, +0.35%
3. Grayson, +0.22%
4. Jaxon, +0.21%
5. Lincoln, +0.2%
6. Henry, +0.19%
7. Mateo, +0.17%
8. Noah, +0.16%
9. Sebastian, +0.16%
10. Hudson, +0.16%
11. Brantley, +0.15%
12. Ezra, +0.14%
13. Jaxson, +0.14%
14. Theodore, +0.14%
15. Carter, +0.13%
16. Jace, +0.13%
17. Leo, +0.13%
18. Easton, +0.12%
19. Levi, +0.12%
20. Wyatt, +0.12%

If you're thinking that a lot of these seem like rehashed lists from the past few years' analyses, you're pretty much right. So I'm going to try something new: to not only look at the most rising names (by %), but also the names around them, and try to predict how the rankings will change.

Here the result, my predictions for 2016:

The new Top 20!

1.	Emma, no change	Noah, no change
2.	Olivia, no change	Liam, no change
3.	Sophia, no change	Mason, no change
4.	Ava, no change	William, +1
5.	Mia, +1	James, +2
6.	Isabella, -1	Jacob, -2
7.	Charlotte, +2	Ethan, -1
8.	Abigail, -1	Alexander, no change
9.	Harper, +1	Benjamin, +1
10.	Emily, -2	Michael, -1
11.	Amelia, +1	Elijah, no change
12.	Sofia, +2	Aiden, +1
13.	Evelyn, +2	Oliver, +6
14.	Avery, +2	Daniel, -2
15.	Elizabeth, -2	Logan, -1
16.	Madison, -5	Lucas, no change
17.	Scarlett, +5	Matthew, -2
18.	Victoria, +2	Jackson, -1
19.	Aubrey, +2	Carter, +5
20.	Grace, -1	David, -2

Here are the names I think will move into and out of the Top 100:

In:	Out:
Elena	Alexis
Eliana	Alyssa
Hadley	Ashley
Kinsley	Brianna
Luna	Gianna
Willow	Khloe
Roman	Nathaniel

And perhaps even more fun, the Top 1000:

In:	Out:
Aadhya	Abril
Addalyn	Alissa
Aliah	Aliya
Amora	America
Anais	Asia
Anniston	Breanna
Antonella	Dana
Antonia	Denise
Ari	Emmalee
Aubri	Halle
August	Heather
Ayva	Ireland
Belle	Jaida
Chandler	Janiya
Charleston	Jasmin
Dani	Jayden
Ellery	Jaylin
Ellianna	Jenny
Etta	Jocelynn
Everlee	Kaitlynn
Harleigh	Kayden
Jana	Kiana
Kaidence	Kiley
Kaylani	Kimora
Londynn	Libby
Mavis	Luz
Mercy	Mariyah
Mylah	Mollie
Paisleigh	Moriah
Poppy	Natalee
Ramona	Nataly
	Princess
	Saniyah
	Sharon
	Sidney
	Tabitha
	Wendy
	Yasmin
Abner	Antoine
Alaric	Aydan
Alistair	Braiden
Braylin	Brenden
Brysen	Camren
Danilo	Chace
Decker	Cristopher
Foster	Davin
Fox	Deshawn
Gatlin	Ean
Harlem	Frankie
Imran	Freddy
Ira	Gilbert
Jericho	Jadon
Keanu	Jamarion
Khalid	Jaydon
Koda	Jayvion
Kooper	Jessie
Mccoy	Jordyn
Merrick	Jovani
Rayyan	Kaeden
Simeon	Kamron
Tadeo	Malaki
Taj	Marquis
Wesson	Osvaldo
Westley	Rashad
Yaakov	Rolando
Zamir	Todd
	Triston
	Tyree
	Ulises

Okay! Only a couple weeks or so to go, and we'll see how good (or terribly!) I did. :D