What Does 'Change' Mean? Part 3

Whew! And now the third & final part of my popularity-change analysis (Parts 1 [girls] & 2 [boys]). Seeing how a name jumps in popularity-rank is probably the simplest way to gauge trendiness, but it can be a bit misleading.  A name jumping from #1000 to #995, for instance, is not gaining as much use as a name jumping from #6 to #1.
So, for this post, I've calculated what percentage of boys/girls were given a name in 2010, and how much that percentage changed in 2011.

Boys:

1. Mason, 0.72% --> 0.96%
2. Liam, 0.53% --> 0.66%
3. Bentley, 0.18% --> 0.28%
4. Axel, 0.1% --> 0.15%
5. Easton, 0.13% --> 0.19%
6. Jace, 0.13% --> 0.18%
7. Ayden, 0.25% --> 0.30%
8. Blake, 0.23% --> 0.28%
9. Jaxon, 0.19% --> 0.23%
10. Declan, 0.06 --> 0.11%

Girls:

1. Harper, 0.13% --> 0.24%
2. Aubrey, 0.27% --> 0.37%
3. Emma, 0.89% --> 0.97%
4. Aubree, 0.07& --> 0.15%
5. Sophia, 1.05% --> 1.13%
6. Zoey, 0.27% --> 0.33%
7. Brooklyn, 0.31% --> 0.37%
8. Charlotte, 0.27% --> 0.33%
9. Sofia, 0.32% --> 0.38%
10. Aria, 0.05% --> 0.10%

To put these percentages into perspective--if there were only 1000 boys born in the U.S. each year, 9 or 10 would be Mason in 2011. The previous year, 7 would have been named Mason.
In some cases, these jumps correspond to a large jump in rankings, but not always. For instance, Emma didn't change ranking at all (#3 in both 2010 and 2011), and yet it showed the third largest percentage increase.

And for one more fun little exercise--relative frequency. Obviously your chances of meeting a newborn Mason didn't increase much from 2010 to 2011. However, that's not the case with many names--for instance, you're 3 times more likely to meet a new baby Brantley in 2011 than you were in 2010. In this case, relative frequency increase does usually correspond to a jump in ranking (this only includes names from the top 2500). 

Boys:

1. Brantley, 3.23x
2. Flynn, 2.6x
3. Raylan, 2.5x
4. Brentley, 2.36x
5. Maximiliano, 2.14x
6. Iker, 2.1x
7. Bowen, 1.9x
8. Imran, 1.84x
9. Jaxen, 1.82x
10. Deklan, 1.75x
11. Declan, 1.74x
12. Aston, 1.71x
13. Crosby, 1.7x
14. Cam, 1.65x
15. Bear, 1.63x
16. Eason, 1.63x
17. Kyren, 1.6x
18. Royce, 1.58x
19. Axel, 1.56x
20. Jaxton, 1.56x

Girls:

1. Milania, 2.54x
2. Aria, 2.22x
3. Aubree, 2.1x
4. Mila, 2.1x
5. Briella, 2.0x
6. Ariadne, 1.84x
7. Aliyana, 1.83x
8. Alianna, 1.82x
9. Angelique, 1.81x
10. Harper, 1.8x
11. Taylin, 1.77x
12. Aviana, 1.76x
13. Samaya, 1.75x
14. Avianna, 1.67x
15. Kynleigh, 1.67x
16. Anyla, 1.64x
17. Hattie, 1.64x
18. Bryn, 1.63x
19. Vada, 1.62x
20. Adele, 1.6x

Up until now, I've only been doing the biggest gains (because let's face it, they're much more fun!). But, in the interest of being well-rounded, here're the biggest percentage losers:

Boys:

1. Joshua, 0.75% --> 0.68%
2. Jacob, 1.08% --> 1%
3. Tyler, 0.51% --> 0.44%
4. Angel, 0.43% --> 0.37%
5. Ethan, 0.88% --> 0.82%
6. Christopher, 0.69% --> 0.64%
7. Anthony, 0.75% --> 0.7%
8. Evan, 0.47% --> 0.43%
9. Nicholas, 0.47% --> 0.42%
10. Logan, 0.68% --> 0.64%

Girls:

1. Isabella, 1.17% --> 1.03%
2. Alexis, 0.42% --> 0.34%
3. Brianna, 0.32% --> 0.27%
4. Samantha, 0.43% --> 0.38%
5. Addison, 0.53% --> 0.48%
6. Alyssa, 0.36% --> 0.31%
7. Makayla, 0.28% --> 0.23%
8. Abigail, 0.73% --> 0.68%
9. Ashley, 0.32% --> 0.28%
10. Bella, 0.26% --> 0.22%

An interesting list! Classic boys' names seem to be slipping away--is the boys' list finally going to start being as fickle & trend-driven as the girls? Is the -bella craze on its way out, or are they just making way for Annabelle & Arabella? 

And now the biggest drops in relative frequency. In the previous frequency list, the numbers represented how more likely you were to meet a newborn with that name in 2011 than in 2010; in this list, it's how much less likely you are. Or, to put it another way, now much more popular the name was in 2010.
(this is a really, really random collection of names!)

Boys:

1. Tiger, 4.92x
2. Khamani, 2.7x
3. Dalen, 2.46x
4. Ramone, 2.17x
5. Denim, 2.06x
6. Trevan, 2.04x
7. Dereon, 1.93x
8. Galen, 1.87x
9. Tayshaun, 1.87x
10. Lisandro, 1.86x
11. Niklas, 1.84x
12. Derion, 1.8x
13. Maliek, 1.77x
14. Darey, 1.75x
15. Dusty, 1.74x
16. Lucus, 1.73x
17. Dyllan, 1.71x
18. Lebron, 1.71x
19. Jahiem, 1.7x
20. Isak, 1.67x

Girls:

1. Aymar, 3.93x
2. Allisson, 3.28x
3. Lisandra, 2.89x
4. Aime, 2.76x
5. Briza, 2.54x
6. Taylar, 2.46x
7. Brisa, 1.83x
8. Elexis, 1.87x
9. Kalena, 1.86x
10. Vianna, 1.85x
11. Mykayla, 1.79x
12. Shaniya, 1.79x
13. Maria Jose, 1.79x
14. Marely, 1.7x
15. Brissa, 1.7x
16. Analy, 1.69x
17. Elyn, 1.67x
18. Johannah, 1.65x
19. Saray, 1.64x
20. Jaydin, 1.64x

Now, unfortunately, the SSA list counts alternate spellings as separate names--Aidan, Aiden, & Ayden are all ranked differently, despite that they all sound the same. But, what goes for one spelling of a name tends to apply to the other as well. Since Jacob has dropped in use, it's likely that Jakob, Jaycob, & Jakub all have as well.
And since Mason, for instance, has fewer spelling variants than something like Aidan or Jayden, it's also probably not as popular than the SSA lists imply.