2016 is soooo cloooose...

The SSA popularity lists, obviously. ;)
(if you want to skip the numbers babble, scroll down 'til you see the big bold "predictions!"

I've decided to try my hand at this prediction thing, using statistics, of course. I compared the lists from 2015 and 2010 to see which names had climbed the most--any name can have a fluke jump from one year to the next, but to continue to rise means it might have some staying power (or at least become a name that pinpoints a generation).

I started by finding the names that had the biggest ranking jumps, and no shocker--it was the all ones that surprised me in previous years. Can these names stand the test of time? It might still be too early to tell.
The observant reader may note that almost all are pop-culture inspired choices. :p

1. Daleyza, unranked --> #236
2. Cataleya, unranked --> #434
3. Zendaya, unranked --> #800
4. Khaleesi, unranked --> #814
5. Dalary, unranked --> #911
6. Kataleya, unranked --> #1149
7. Cattleya, unranked --> #1621
8. Daleysa, unranked --> #1935
9. Merida, unranked --> #1986
10. Adalind, unranked --> #2126
11. Daenerys, unranked --> #2262
12. Aaradhya, unranked --> #2287
13. Yazaira, unranked --> #2287
14. Jesiah, unranked --> #2568
15. Vanellope, unranked --> #2596
16. Arrow, unranked --> #2865
17. Oaklynn, unranked --> #2986
18. Oaklyn, unranked --> #3045
19. Everlie, unranked --> #3076
20. Janney, unranked --> #3152

1. Jonael, unranked --> #918
2. Viaan, unranked --> #1213
3. Jionni, unranked --> #1218
4. Jaycion, unranked --> #1792
5. Jaiceon, unranked --> #1941
6. Eivin, unranked --> #2074
7. Nivaan, unranked --> #2224
8. Finnick, unranked --> #2311
9. True, unranked --> #2311
10. Avyaan, unranked --> #2338
11. Itzae, unranked --> #2417
12. Jaceyon, unranked --> #2444
13. Kroy, unranked --> #2444
14. Jaceion, unranked --> #2471
15. Jayceion, unranked --> #2588
16. Gotham, unranked --> #2621
17. Jacion, unranked --> #2621
18. Rhydian, unranked --> #2621
19. Johnluke, unranked --> #2752
20. Aayansh, unranked --> #2793

So, yeah. While these did make big jumps, none of them are particularly popular. So how about the names that made the biggest rises since 2010 to end up in the Top 200?

1. Everly, +1293 (#1431 --> #138)
2. Raelynn, +450 (#627 --> #177)
3. Aria, +324 (#353 --> #29)
4. Adalynn, +323 (#446 --> #123)
5. Mila, +311 (#364 --> #53)
6. Luna, +232 (#342 --> #110)
7. Athena, +205 (#362 --> #157)
8. Emilia, +203 (#348 --> #145)
9. Hazel, +200 (#263 --> #63)
10. Kinsley, +194 (#307 --> #113)
11. Paisley, +192 (#237 --> #45)
12. Arabella, +192 (#386 --> #194)
13. Cora, +188 (#276 --> #88)
14. Adeline, +188 (#323 --> #135)
15. Adelyn, +187 (#380 --> #193)
16. Willow, +178 (#289 --> #111)
17. Emery, +178 (#312 --> #134)
18. Rose, +171 (#337 --> #166)
19. Ivy, +170 (#299 --> #129)
20. Penelope, +166 (#200 --> #34)
21. Quinn, +157 (#254 --> #97)
22. Isla, +156 (#297 --> #141)
23. Ximena, +147 (#272 --> #125)
24. Aubree, +145 (#223 --> #78)
25. Skylar, +139 (#181 --> #42)

1. Brantley, +615 (#736 --> #121)
2. Iker, +456 (#646 --> #190)
3. Jase, +422 (#604 --> #182)
4. Maverick, +321 (#505 --> #184)
5. Karter, +261 (#444 --> #183)
6. Matteo, +238 (#429 --> #191)
7. King, +236 (#399 --> #163)
8. August, +232 (#427 --> #195)
9. Abel, +168 (#293 --> #125)
10. Jayce, +166 (#298 --> #132)
11. Theodore, +162 (#261 --> #99)
12. Declan, +162 (#274 --> #112)
13. Ryker, +161 (#310 --> #149)
14. Everett, +152 (#287 --> #135)
15. Ezra, +150 (#242 --> #92)
16. Zayden, +144 (#337 --> #193)
17. Greyson, +138 (#249 --> #111)
18. Mateo, +137 (#222 --> #85)
19. Emmett, +134 (#273 --> #139)
20. Jameson, +133 (#277 --> #144)
21. Lincoln, +131 (#197 --> #66)
22. Bennett, +126 (#279 --> #153)
23. Harrison, +114 (#233 --> #119)
24. Luca, +113 (#270 --> #157)
25. Graham, +106 (#282 --> #176)

I find it interesting how the girls' jumps are more extreme, and that also more girls' names made it into the Top 100, not just the Top 200 (not to mention the 3 different iterations of Adeline).
Another indication of how girls' names tend to be more trend-driven, I suppose?

It's actually pretty easy for lower-ranking names to gain quite a bit in a short time, mostly because all the names further down the list tend to be pretty close in usage numbers, while the higher up you get, the more names break away from the pack. So lets see which names gained the most in actual usage (by % of babies born, 2015 Top 200 only):

1. Harper, +0.40%
2. Charlotte, +0.31%
3. Aria, +0.28%
4. Scarlett, +0.23%
5. Amelia, +0.23%
6. Penelope, +0.23%
7. Mia, +0.22%
8. Mila, +0.20%
9. Paisley, +0.19%
10. Skylar, +0.18%
11. Evelyn, +0.18%
12. Sofia, +0.18%
13. Nora, +0.18%
14. Emma, +0.17%
15. Hazel, +0.16%
16. Olivia, +0.14%
17. Avery, +0.14%
18. Eleanor, +0.13%
19. Violet, +0.12%
20. Aubree, +0.12%

1. Liam, +0.37%
2. Oliver, +0.35%
3. Grayson, +0.22%
4. Jaxon, +0.21%
5. Lincoln, +0.2%
6. Henry, +0.19%
7. Mateo, +0.17%
8. Noah, +0.16%
9. Sebastian, +0.16%
10. Hudson, +0.16%
11. Brantley, +0.15%
12. Ezra, +0.14%
13. Jaxson, +0.14%
14. Theodore, +0.14%
15. Carter, +0.13%
16. Jace, +0.13%
17. Leo, +0.13%
18. Easton, +0.12%
19. Levi, +0.12%
20. Wyatt, +0.12%

If you're thinking that a lot of these seem like rehashed lists from the past few years' analyses, you're pretty much right. So I'm going to try something new: to not only look at the most rising names (by %), but also the names around them, and try to predict how the rankings will change.

Here the result, my predictions for 2016:

The new Top 20!

1.	Emma, no change	Noah, no change
2.	Olivia, no change	Liam, no change
3.	Sophia, no change	Mason, no change
4.	Ava, no change	William, +1
5.	Mia, +1	James, +2
6.	Isabella, -1	Jacob, -2
7.	Charlotte, +2	Ethan, -1
8.	Abigail, -1	Alexander, no change
9.	Harper, +1	Benjamin, +1
10.	Emily, -2	Michael, -1
11.	Amelia, +1	Elijah, no change
12.	Sofia, +2	Aiden, +1
13.	Evelyn, +2	Oliver, +6
14.	Avery, +2	Daniel, -2
15.	Elizabeth, -2	Logan, -1
16.	Madison, -5	Lucas, no change
17.	Scarlett, +5	Matthew, -2
18.	Victoria, +2	Jackson, -1
19.	Aubrey, +2	Carter, +5
20.	Grace, -1	David, -2

Here are the names I think will move into and out of the Top 100:

In:	Out:
Elena	Alexis
Eliana	Alyssa
Hadley	Ashley
Kinsley	Brianna
Luna	Gianna
Willow	Khloe
Roman	Nathaniel

And perhaps even more fun, the Top 1000:

In:	Out:
Aadhya	Abril
Addalyn	Alissa
Aliah	Aliya
Amora	America
Anais	Asia
Anniston	Breanna
Antonella	Dana
Antonia	Denise
Ari	Emmalee
Aubri	Halle
August	Heather
Ayva	Ireland
Belle	Jaida
Chandler	Janiya
Charleston	Jasmin
Dani	Jayden
Ellery	Jaylin
Ellianna	Jenny
Etta	Jocelynn
Everlee	Kaitlynn
Harleigh	Kayden
Jana	Kiana
Kaidence	Kiley
Kaylani	Kimora
Londynn	Libby
Mavis	Luz
Mercy	Mariyah
Mylah	Mollie
Paisleigh	Moriah
Poppy	Natalee
Ramona	Nataly
	Princess
	Saniyah
	Sharon
	Sidney
	Tabitha
	Wendy
	Yasmin
Abner	Antoine
Alaric	Aydan
Alistair	Braiden
Braylin	Brenden
Brysen	Camren
Danilo	Chace
Decker	Cristopher
Foster	Davin
Fox	Deshawn
Gatlin	Ean
Harlem	Frankie
Imran	Freddy
Ira	Gilbert
Jericho	Jadon
Keanu	Jamarion
Khalid	Jaydon
Koda	Jayvion
Kooper	Jessie
Mccoy	Jordyn
Merrick	Jovani
Rayyan	Kaeden
Simeon	Kamron
Tadeo	Malaki
Taj	Marquis
Wesson	Osvaldo
Westley	Rashad
Yaakov	Rolando
Zamir	Todd
	Triston
	Tyree
	Ulises

Okay! Only a couple weeks or so to go, and we'll see how good (or terribly!) I did. :D

RIP, 1970; Part 2

For this round, I'm looking at change in gender. As you can imagine, the vast majority that changed went boy-to-girl or boy-to-unisex.
I compared the gender ratio for each name in 1970 to the gender ratio today, and here are the biggest changes.
(from the current Top 1500, because names further down are a lot more subject to bouncing around)

Masculine in 1970, now more common for girls:
(note that this is not necessarily most-->least common today, but the names that changed gender most strongly)

1. Charley
2. Emory
3. Riley
4. Monroe
5. Emerson
6. Reese
7. Emery
8. Stevie
9. Kennedy
10. Addison
11. Mckinley
12. Palmer
13. Ellery
14. Leighton
15. Payton
16. Harley
17. Bailey
18. Aubrey
19. Berkley
20. Delaney

It's hard to show the change easily and succinctly, but Charley, the biggest gender-swap, went from 90 boys to every girl to 8 girls for every boy. Emory went from about 80 boys to every girl to 8 girls for every boy. I calculated using percentages, so these lists are weighted towards more common names--although Delaney went from 13 boys per girl to 277 girls per boy, it was much less popular to start with.

Still more common for boys, but with the biggest shifts toward unisex:

1. Elliott
2. Elliot
3. Denver
4. Spencer
5. Drew
6. Royal
7. Milan
8. Charlie
9. Ellis
10. Reece
11. Jordan
12. Blake
13. Chandler
14. Ari
15. Remy
16. Lennox
17. Quincy
18. Keegan
19. Rory
20. Dallas

Elliott was the biggest shift on any of the lists. It went from not appearing at all on the girls list (if there was one girl Elliott born in 1970, that would make it about a 230/1 boy/girl ratio) to a ratio of about 4 boys for every girl.

And just for fun, the few names that went girl-->boy (again, only from the 2015 boys' Top 1500 to avoid weird data).

More feminine in 1970, now more common for boys:

1. Joan
2. Yael
3. Isa
4. Tristin
5. Dashawn
6. Tristen
7. Jean
8. Dominique
9. Elisha
10. Davi
11. Deshaun
12. Niko
13. Nico
14. Nikola
15. Arian
16. Sami
17. Deshawn
18. Angel

Almost all of these were pretty uncommon for either in 1970 (for instance, Niko was given to 16 girls and 9 boys that year). Joan and Jean are big surprises, though! I knew they were generally considered "outdated" for girls, but I didn't realize both were now more common for boys (I'm assuming said the Catalan & French ways, respectively).

Still more common for girls, but with the biggest shifts toward unisex:

1. Robin
2. Eden
3. Courtney

Of course, jumping from 1970 to 2015, you miss the giant spike of  Courtneys around 1990.
The one popular '70s name on this list is Robin--Robin was over 10x more common for girls in 1970, and is now nearly equal for boys and girls. Surprising, but pretty awesome!


If you're interested in the full list of gender-benders, it is here. 

RIP, 1970; Part 1.

To tide me over until the next SSA list release (Maaaaayyy....aaarrrrgggghh), I decided to have some fun seeing which names have died off since 1970.
(why 1970? It's kind of the borderline between the current parent and grandparent generations, plus apparently I haven't really done any sort of analysis with data from the 70s yet)

Aside from there being way more mistakes (I assume! I can't imagine there really were all that many guys named Mary, Patricia, or Lisa), I thought it'd be interesting to see which names/spellings that were in the Top 1500 in 1970 aren't on the 2015 list at all.
So for instance, Rob was #450 in 1970, given to 333 boys. In 2015, it was given to at most 4 boys; it doesn't appear anywhere on the complete 2015 list (the SSA only lists names given to 5 or more babies, for privacy).

Boys:

• Rob, #450
• Tod, #478
• Robb, #514
• Kraig, #557
• Pat, #584
• Lonny, #647
• Brain, #693
• Daryle, #696
• Jefferey, #721
• Kirt, #743
• Timmothy, #829
• Reginal, #841
• Shanon, #856
• Erie, #893
• Burt, #916
• Adolph, #927
• Curtiss, #933
• Dwane, #1000
• Kieth, #1010
• Roderic, #1011
• Vern, #1012
• Geoff, #1036
• Brooke, #1052
• Randel, #1058
• Winfred, #1089
• Sal, #1098
• Kiley, #1106
• Buford, #1130
• Dick, #1145
• Jemal, #1149
• Lupe, #1152
• Graig, #1160
• Tadd, #1167
• Tyronne, #1169
• Gaylon, #1173
• Kennth, #1197
• Bartley, #1222
• Carleton, #1235
• Dennie, #1236
• Gorge, #1269
• Jere, #1271
• Darold, #1279
• Jodi, #1283
• Butch, #1295
• Darryll, #1316
• Rayford, #1329
• Daryll, #1336
• Errick, #1340
• Timonthy, #1348
• Kary, #1361
• Rodd, #1367
• Shelly, #1369
• Tige, #1370
• Wendel, #1372
• Corby, #1375
• Earle, #1378
• Gerold, #1379
• Kreg, #1384
• Rolf, #1389
• Burl, #1396
• Darran, #1398
• Jami, #1405
• Mel, #1410
• Dorsey, #1423
• Patrice, #1432
• Alford, #1439
• Cleve, #1443
• Darryle, #1469
• Johathan, #1478
• Lynwood, #1482
• Terri, #1488
• Winfield, #1491
• Connie, #1496

I'm actually surprised at how many are misspellings or respellings. Most of those were from the trendy names of the time, though. Quite a few at-the-time unisex nicknames or full names, as well, which the boys mostly "lost".
Also, who was still naming their kid Adolph in 1970?!?!

Girls:

• Tammi, #318
• Deanne, #393
• Susanne, #408
• Gayle, #418
• Shonda, #432
• Tonja, #464
• Latanya, #473
• Deann, #494
• Terrie, #495
• Lauri, #502
• Lesa, #540
• Lawanda, #542
• Nanette, #548
• Pam, #561
• Shelli, #567
• Dee, #572
• Felecia, #572
• Tamela, #577
• Latonia, #583
• Tamatha, #599
• Misti, #602
• Shanon, #609
• Shannan, #612
• Vonda, #612
• Buffy, #614
• Shanda, #621
• Aretha, #640
• Chanda, #652
• Tawnya, #654
• Letitia, #656
• Vikki, #657
• Trena, #673
• Janene, #684
• Tawana, #685
• Gayla, #689
• Lorri, #692
• Latricia, #702
• Shiela, #713
• Sheree, #723
• Renita, #724
• Cindi, #728
• Barbra, #738
• Pamala, #740
• Kathie, #745
• Mellissa, #762
• Shonna, #782
• Yolonda, #787
• Lucretia, #790
• Tresa, #801
• Kathi, #806
• Dale, #813
• Kecia, #814
• Toya, #823
• Willie, #824
• Patrica, #836
• Dedra, #838
• Laverne, #839
• Carie, #855
• Milissa, #857
• Cary, #864
• Tangela, #872
• Tanja, #876
• Dona, #879
• Carri, #892
• Bobby, #895
• Lorinda, #898
• Sharonda, #904
• Tena, #905
• Tawanda, #908
• Tisa, #911
• Gerri, #916
• Deloris, #921
• Diann, #942
• Mindi, #945
• Sherie, #946
• Tawanna, #951
• Leisa, #954
• Tamiko, #959
• Cristi, #961
• Shawnda, #969
• Tosha, #970
• Deedee, #975
• Tracee, #978
• Dyan, #980
• Gale, #980
• Kimberely, #990
• Treena, #995
• Towanda, #1005
• Mellisa, #1007
• Tamala, #1009
• Lashon, #1011
• Dawne, #1015
• Gay, #1016
• Deeann, #1028
• Tameka, #1032
• Dorene, #1034
• Nannette, #1038
• Tamie, #1040
• Tarsha, #1041
• Shawnna, #1051
• Jerry, #1056
• Migdalia, #1058
• Trudi, #1059
• Nichol, #1064
• Terese, #1066
• Marva, #1076
• Melissia, #1079
• Lavonda, #1082
• Cinnamon, #1083
• Stephaine, #1087
• Donita, #1089
• Detra, #1099
• Joellen, #1101
• Cherri, #1108
• Larhonda, #1112
• Nanci, #1115
• Roxane, #1116
• Ronna, #1122
• Marty, #1130
• Shalonda, #1131
• Sharyn, #1132
• Teena, #1141
• Jacki, #1148
• Shandra, #1152
• Tammara, #1153
• Romona, #1161
• Shanta, #1163
• Vickey, #1166
• Carletta, #1176
• Keshia, #1178
• Devona, #1181
• Latrina, #1185
• Alfreda, #1191
• Jammie, #1197
• Laronda, #1199
• Melba, #1204
• Becki, #1213
• Buffie, #1214
• Felisa, #1217
• Fonda, #1218
• Gidget, #1219
• Bernadine, #1224
• Deedra, #1226
• Lasonya, #1232
• Sherita, #1237
• Cherrie, #1239
• Kelle, #1242
• Lesia, #1244
• Bonny, #1246
• Shena, #1256
• Tabetha, #1257
• Wendie, #1259
• Jeanene, #1264
• Nilda, #1283
• Petrina, #1284
• Juliane, #1287
• Tomeka, #1291
• Lashanda, #1296
• Sanjuanita, #1303
• Suzann, #1304
• Charise, #1306
• Deneen, #1307
• Chiquita, #1314
• Rachele, #1326
• Twana, #1328
• Candance, #1330
• Candie, #1330
• Dannette, #1332
• Dodie, #1333
• Kellye, #1344
• Taunya, #1351
• Tony, #1352
• Chantell, #1356
• Jenniffer, #1361
• Merri, #1364
• Twanda, #1368
• Ladawn, #1375
• Lashunda, #1376
• Nedra, #1381
• Pattie, #1382
• Tarra, #1386
• Vernita, #1387
• Denita, #1392
• Inger, #1393
• Karon, #1396
• Patrina, #1403
• Shaunda, #1419
• Trinette, #1420
• Billy, #1422
• Lory, #1426
• Steffanie, #1427
• Calandra, #1430
• Chanin, #1433
• Cher, #1434
• Coreen, #1436
• Necole, #1441
• Germaine, #1446
• Latina, #1448
• Nickie, #1450
• Sherron, #1451
• Cheryle, #1454
• Latosha, #1457
• Shondra, #1462
• Carolee, #1464
• Debbra, #1465
• Sharee, #1469
• Tari, #1471
• Tonda, #1472
• Anglea, #1475
• Demetrice, #1477
• Heide, #1480
• Joe, #1481
• Kiesha, #1491
• Lavette, #1492
• Omayra, #1495
• Tiffiny, #1499
• Treasa, #1500

A) It is crazy how many more girls' names there are. 

B) I removed a lot more girls' names from the boys' list than boys' names from the girls' list--only excluding long-standing traditional masculine names like Richard and Steven--since girls getting trendy boys' names or boys' diminutives is a thing that has always happened and they seemed more likely to be accurate data.

So wow! Again, lots of miss- and re-spellings of the popular names of the day. I'm sad to say a lot of these bring up unpleasant stereotypes. -_-

Migdalia intrigues me--Google brings up several Migdalias with Spanish surnames, and while I'm quite out-of-practice with Spanish, it seems to be a variant of Magdala (as in, the hometown of Mary Magdalene). Interesting!