Prediction Checks (2016)

So, a couple weeks ago I averaged the data change over the last 5 years, and tried to use that to predict rankings this year. I was sometimes successful.
Let's see them.

	My prediction	Actual 2016 Top 20
1.	Emma, #1, no change	Emma, #1, no change
2.	Olivia, #2, no change	Olivia, #2, no change
3.	Sophia, #3, no change	Ava, #3, +1
4.	Ava, #4, no change	Sophia, #4, -1
5.	Mia, #5, +1	Isabella, #5, no change
6.	Isabella, #6, -1	Mia, #6, no change
7.	Charlotte, #7, +2	Charlotte, #7, +2
8.	Abigail, #8, -1	Abigail, #8, -1
9.	Harper, #9, +1	Emily, #9, -1
10.	Emily, #10, -2	Harper, #10, no change
11.	Amelia, #11, +1	Amelia, #11, +1
12.	Sofia, #12, +2	Evelyn, #12, +3
13.	Evelyn, #13, +2	Elizabeth, #13, no change
14.	Avery, #14, +2	Sofia, #14, no change
15.	Elizabeth, #15, -2	Madison, #15, -4
16.	Madison, #16, -5	Avery, #16, no change
17.	Scarlett, #17, +5	Ella, #17, +1
18.	Victoria, #18, +2	Scarlett, #18, +4
19.	Aubrey, #19, +2	Grace, #19, no change
20.	Grace, #20, -1	Chloe, #20, -3

	My prediction	Actual 2016 Top 20
1.	Noah, #1, no change	Noah, #1, no change
2.	Liam, #2, no change	Liam, #2, no change
3.	Mason, #3, no change	William, #3, +2
4.	William, #4, +1	Mason, #4, -1
5.	James, #5, +2	James, #5, +2
6.	Jacob, #6, -2	Benjamin, #6, +4
7.	Ethan, #7, -1	Jacob, #7, -3
8.	Alexander, #8, no change	Michael, #8, +1
9.	Benjamin, #9, +1	Elijah, #9, +2
10.	Michael, #10, -1	Ethan, #10, -4
11.	Elijah, #11, no change	Alexander, #11, -3
12.	Aiden, #12, +1	Oliver, #12, +7
13.	Oliver, #13, +6	Daniel, #13, -1
14.	Daniel, #14, -2	Lucas, #14, +2
15.	Logan, #15, -1	Matthew, #15, no change
16.	Lucas, #16, no change	Aiden, #16, -3
17.	Matthew, #17, -2	Jackson, #17, no change
18.	Jackson, #18, -1	Logan, #18, -4
19.	Carter, #19, +5	David, #19, -1
20.	David, #20, -2	Joseph, #20, +1

So, not terrible. I thought Chloe & Ella would fall further, and that Aubrey & Victoria would gain instead of falling.
Likewise, for boys, I predicted Carter jumping ahead of Joseph, but alas, it did not.

Now my predictions for the ins & outs of the Top 100:

Predicted:	Actual:
(in)
Elena	Adeline
Eliana	Elena
Hadley	Eliana
Kinsley	Kinsley
Luna	Luna
Willow	Willow
Roman	Bryson
	Greyson
	Leonardo
	Roman
(out)
Alexis	Alexis
Alyssa	Alyssa
Ashley	Ashley
Brianna	Annabelle
Gianna	Isabelle
Khloe	Khloe
Nathaniel	Blake
	Kayden
	Nathaniel
	Ryder

Hey, I didn't do too bad, especially for girls! :D


I made a lot of Top 1000 predictions, and the results were more mixed (and quite a bit too involved to list here concisely): 74 of the 139 names I predicted to shift in or out did, which on its own is about 50%--not bad. However, of the 180 names that actually moved in/out, I only predicted 74 of them (40%).
My methods worked best with names that moved steadily (whether quickly or slowly, as long as the rate stayed consistent), and were surrounded by names that also moved steadily. Names that jumped or tanked suddenly (thanks mostly to pop culture) are ones that messed me up. :)