Trends in general fascinate me, and being a math nerd, I just
have to try and quantify them somehow. My alphabetical/pattern analysis for 2011 can be found
here (warning: lots of percentages), and I thought it'd be interesting to see how the trends have changed over time.
Unfortunately, the SSA data before 1937 isn't terribly reliable--SS cards were optional before then, so the data is skewed towards the types of parents who willingly registered their kids with the SSA. On top of that, the data-collection techniques weren't as refined, so some of the data is questionable (
Were men really being called 'Wm
' & 'Geo
', or were they actually 'William
' & 'George
'? Were there really over 340 boys named 'Mary
' in 1930, and 400 women named 'John
'?).
So, anyway, I've done an analysis on the full SSA list from 1940.
The first glaring difference is the number of names--there were over 3x as many names/spellings in use in 2011 as there were in 1940--and no, the birth rate has not tripled since then. It hasn't even doubled. Our quest for "uniqueness" seems to have succeeded on that front.
To put some numbers on it: the average girls' name (or spelling) in 1940 was given to 235 babies; the average boys' name to 301. In 2011, the average girls' name was given to 99 babies, the average boys' name to 142.
No modern trend is more pronounced than the "-aiden"s. In 2011, over 97000 boys were given names that rhymed with Aidan, nearly 5% of all baby boys. In 1940, only 151 boys were given "aiden" names--Hayden, Graden, and Graydon--0.001% of all baby boys.
Surprisingly, boys' names seem to have undergone more phonetic changes than girls.
In 1940, 17% of boys were given names that end with D. In 2011, 2% were.
In 1940, 15% of boys were given names ending with an "ee" sound. In 2011, 8% were.
In 1940, 13% of boys were given names that end with S. In 2011, 6% were.
In 1940, 0.15% of boys were given names that end in the "den" or "ten" sounds. In 2011, 9.2% were.
In 1940, 0.5% of boys were given names that start with Br-. In 2011, 3.5% were.
In 1940, 0.25% of boys were given names that end in 'son'. In 2011, 4.5% were.
In 1940, 4% of boys were given names that end in R. In 2011, 8% were.
In 1940, 13% of boys were given names that end in N. In 2011, 34% were.
If percentages make your eyes swim, here's a quick summary:
Boys born in 1940 were 8x as likely to have a name ending in D, nearly 2x as likely to have a name ending in "ee", and over twice as likely to have a name ending in S.
Boys born in 2011 are over 62x as likely to have a name ending in "den" or "ten", 7x as likely to have a name starting with Br, 18x more likely to have a name ending in "son", 2x as likely to have a name ending in R, and nearly 3x as likely to have a name ending in N.
As for the girls, the changes have been more in letter combinations, rather than in starts or endings.
The percentage of girls with names ending in A, for instance, hasn't really changed. Neither has the percentage of girls with names ending in "ee", or "anne/anna", or "lyn"; or starting with a rare letter. So, despite the fact that parents are historically more 'daring' with girls' names than for boys, they're still sort of just being 'daring' in the same old acceptable ways. The modern tendency for parents to name for a certain nickname is pretty darn apparent, too.
In 1940, 8.8% of girls were given names containing "th". In 2011, 2.3% were.
In 1940, 7.2% of girls were given names ending in the "een" sound. In 2011, 0.8% were.
In 1940, 0.5% of girls were given names starting with Ad- or Mad-. In 2011, 3.1% were.
In 1940, 0.17% of girls were given names containing "bel". In 2011, 2.3% were.
In 1940, 0.75% of girls were given names containing "em". In 2011, 3% were.
In 1940, 0.45% of girls were given names containing "lil". In 2011, 1.7% were.
In 1940, 2.3% of girls were given name containing "ell" or "ella". In 2011, 6.2% were.
In 1940, 4% of girls were given names ending in a "lee" sound. In 2011, 10% were.
In 1940, 6.5% of girls were given names ending in the "eye-ah" or "ee-ah" sounds. In 2011, 12% were.
In summary:
Girls born in 1940 were nearly 4x as likely to have a name containing "th", and over 9x as likely to have a name ending in "een".
Girls born in 2011 are over 13x as likely to have a name with "bel", 6x more likely to have a name starting with Ad- or Mad-, nearly 4x as likely to have a name with "em", 4x as likely to have a name with "lil", nearly 2x as likely to have a name with "ell", over 2x as likely to have a name ending in "lee", and almost 2x as likely to have a name ending in "eye-ah" or "ee-ah".
Unsurprisingly, only 2 names that ended in a "son" sound appeared for girls in 1940, neither of which were patronymics--Susan and Alison/Allison. They accounted for 0.58% of girls.
Now, of course, this is simply an alphabetic/phonetic analysis, so it can't really the capture the popularity change of types of names, like word, nature, boys' names on girls, surname, etc (although many of the final are covered by "-son" and "-den/ten"). Some of changes can be at least partially explained by the rise or decline of names from certain origins--for example, the decrease in "___d" names for boys and "__th_" names for girls likely corresponds to Germanic names falling from style (Alfred, Arnold, Gerald, Edith, Bertha).
Parents are also much more willing to import names, or use names from their own ethnicity; rather than Anglicize an ethnic name, or flat-out choose an "American" name--especially if they follow a popular trend or have a famous namesake. Aaliyah, for instance, wasn't an acceptable name in the US even 20 years ago, but now it's in the top 50 (and is probably much higher if you include all the variant spellings).
